Apple’s 2024 iPhone Shipments to Drop Compared to 2023, Due to Decline in Chinese Demand

Apple’s 2024 iPhone shipments will significantly decline compared to 2023, says iPhone industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, due in part to lower iPhone demand in China.

Apple is facing falling demand for its iPhone in China, as reports tell of local smartphone manufacturers, such as Huawei, overtaking the iPhone in the Chinese market. Those falling sales will affect Apple’s overall shipments of the device during 2024.

After coming out on top in China in 2023, Apple’s position has plunged to fourth place in the first six weeks of 2024, according to a Counterpoint Research report.

China’s top-selling smartphone manufacturer for the first six weeks of 2024 was Vivo, with an 18% market share. Second place was Huawei, then came Honor in third place with a 16% share of the market.

In a Medium post, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo cited a supply chain survey showing that Apple reduced its orders for key semiconductor components that will be used to manufacture the iPhone 15 lineup, as well as the upcoming iPhone 16 lineup.

Kuo predicts the shipping decline could be between 10% and 15% per half-year of 2024. If his prediction proves true, total shipment numbers could come in at around 200 million units, a 15% year-over-year fall.

Kuo points to a shift toward high-end smartphones with generative AI elements and foldable designs as one big reason for the 2024 decline. He also points to Huawei’s return to the Chinese smartphone market as a reason for the reduction in iPhone shipments.

Samsung has increased its Galaxy S24 shipments by between 5% and 10%, thanks to a higher-than-expected demand for the smartphone and its generative AI functionality.

Meanwhile, Apple’s weekly iPhone shipments in China have plunged by 30% to 40% during the last few weeks, and Kuo expects that trend to continue.

Kuo estimates that Apple won’t be taking a more AI-forward approach or revamping the iPhone’s design until at least 2025. Apple has been rumored to be working towards releasing a foldable iPhone in that same year.

Apple executives warned during Apple’s fiscal Q1 2024 financial results conference call that the company’s second-quarter results could be lower than expected.

While Kuo sees iPhone shipments to China falling, Wedbush analysts told investors that it was maintaining its price target for the iPhone maker. This is despite multiple problems faced by the Cupertino company, including the issues it is facing in the Chinese smartphone market and its cancellation of the Apple Car project. Wedbush sees pent-up demand for the upcoming iPhone 16 lineup as helping to override any concerns.

Wedbush says the cancellation of the Apple Car was bad news since Apple spent ten years on a “long bad bet.” However, on the bright side, the firm says the cancellation will allow Apple to redeploy staff to its artificial intelligence plans, which could improve matters.

Previously, Wedbush had predicted we’d see 220 million to 230 million iPhone sales during 2024. However, now it expects the demand from upgraders for the iPhone 16 to increase the expected 2024 sales total up to 270 million iPhones.