JP Morgan Says iPhone 16 Demand Is Roughly the Same as iPhone 15

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Investment bank JP Morgan says that demand for the iPhone 16 lineup is roughly the same as the demand for the iPhone 15 lineup was at this time in 2023. However, shipping estimates for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max are shrinking.

Apple has not released details of how many iPhones it has made or how well each model sells. So, JP Morgan tracks shipping times to determine demand. The investment bank’s analysts have previously said that demand for the top-end iPhone 16 Pro Max has been high, while shipping times for all of the other models (the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, and iPhone 16 Pro) match up with the iPhone 15 lineup’s range.

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In a note to investors shared by AppleInsider, JP Morgan says that shipping lead times have slightly improved for all iPhone 16 models. However, the “decline is particularly notable across the Pro models.”

Overall, the improvement is slightly better than at the same point in 2023. JP Morgan says that while demand remains resilient, it is fractionally behind the iPhone 15 range.

JP Morgan’s estimates contradict other recent reports claiming lackluster demand for the iPhone 16 range.

JP Morgan’s most recent tracking number estimates show the iPhone 16 Pro Max now averages a global shipping time of 17 days. At the same point in 2023, the average global iPhone 15 Pro Max shipping time was 19 days.

Shipping times in the US declined notably during the last (sixth) week of JP Morgan’s tracking. For the final week, the financial firm reported that the iPhone 16 Pro Max was averaging 15 days to deliver, while in 2023, the iPhone 15 Pro Max took 21 days.

China and Europe’s shipping figures were similar, with iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus delivery lead times remaining steady. Meanwhile, the shipping times for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max have improved by approximately five days.

Many analysts, including those working for JP Morgan, had predicted that Apple’s new Apple Intelligence AI features would drive iPhone 16 sales, possibly leading to shipping delays. However, as of October 2024, that expected sales boost has yet to materialize.

One way to increase iPhone 16 sales would be to sell the smartphone in Indonesia. Unfortunately for Apple, that is not allowed at the moment, as the device is banned due to what the Indonesian government says is a lack of investment by Apple in the country.

On October 11, the government warned that Apple could face a possible sales ban in Indonesia if it wasn’t able to renew a local content requirement certification in time. That ban has now become a reality.

“Imported iPhone 16 hardwares cannot be marketed in the country, because Apple Indonesia has not fulfilled its investment commitment to earn a local content certification,” industry ministry spokesperson Febri Hendri Antoni Arief told Reuters on Friday.

Indonesia’s Domestic Component Level laws require certain smartphones sold in the country to contain at least 40% locally manufactured parts.

The requirements can be met via direct manufacturing of components and other methods. These include manufacturing schemes, app development, and innovation development schemes.

In the past, Apple met the level required for TKDN certification by making investments through the innovation development scheme, which involved creating Apple Academies. Unfortunately for Apple, as of October 11, the Cupertino firm had made 1.48 trillion rupiah ($94.5 million) in investment, below the 1.71 trillion rupiah ($109.6 million) investment Apple had previously committed to.

As long as the sales ban exists, Indonesian customers will not be able to purchase iPhones inside the country. If they are desperate to purchase an iPhone, they could travel outside the country, purchase it elsewhere, and pay a tax to bring it back inside Indonesian borders.


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