iPhone 16 Sales Meeting Expectations Despite Lack of Apple Intelligence
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This year’s iPhone 16 launch has been one of the oddest in Apple history, with the new iPhones launching without all of their promised features on day one. Still, it seems the move hasn’t had a serious impact on sales of the new iPhones.
To be clear, it’s not the first time Apple has launched an iPhone with key features coming in later iOS updates. It’s almost become a trend since Apple unveiled the iPhone 7 Plus in September 2016 and announced a Portrait Mode feature for the new dual-camera system that didn’t arrive until iOS 10.1 shipped a few weeks later.
However, this year is unique in that Apple Intelligence is a much bigger deal — at least to Apple. Whatever your personal feelings are about Apple’s new suite of AI features, it’s clear the company wants to make sure everyone knows that it’s a big part of what makes the iPhone 16 lineup special.
At least, it will make the iPhone 16 lineup special once it arrives later this month. Or it will start to, considering that iOS 18.1 will bring only the first few AI features, such as Writing Tools, summaries, and the Clean Up tool in Photos. More fun and exciting things like Genmoji and Image Playground aren’t likely to arrive until December.
One might expect that these delays would put a dent in iPhone sales as folks are less inspired to hurry out and buy the new iPhone until all the features are ready. However, while some analysts have raised concerns that the iPhone 16 isn’t selling as well as expected, Ming-Chi Kuo disagrees, reporting that Apple’s supply chain partners are still cranking out new iPhones at full speed.
At launch, analysts from J.P. Morgan, Barclays, and others suggested that the delivery times for iPhone 16 pre-orders indicated softer demand, and Barclays doubled down on this last week with additional news that Apple may have cut orders for iPhone 16-related components from a Taiwanese chip supplier.
However, measuring demand based on wait times is an imperfect science at best, particularly since it can be a classic glass-half-full-or-empty scenario. Sure, the wait times can be shorter because Apple is dealing with less demand than in previous years, but it’s just as possible that Apple is simply doing a better job of keeping up with expected demand.
That’s where Kuo’s take comes in. While the iPhone 16 models aren’t selling above Apple’s expectations, he notes that they’re still meeting the company’s targets, which is why there aren’t any shortages. Put simply, Apple is producing iPhones 16 units at a rapid enough pace that nobody has to wait longer than usual to get their hands on one.
While Kuo confirms the Barclays analysts’ report that some component orders have been cut, he notes that the reduction is less than 3–5%, which he calls “essentially negligible.”
It’s not all great news, as demand for the base iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 models is reportedly “lackluster” compared to last year’s iPhone 15. That’s an unusual twist considering how much of a leap ahead this year’s standard models are. There’s a good chance we could see that shift as we get closer to December, particularly in light of the report we shared yesterday that 30% of US teens plan to upgrade their iPhones in the next six months to get Apple Intelligence. Still, it seems for now, most folks are going for one of the iPhone 16 Pro models.
Those two higher-end iPhones are in such demand that Apple has asked suppliers to continue cranking them out over China’s National Day holiday. Kuo adds that the shipment volume is also similar to last year’s iPhone 15 Pro, but the reduced shipping times suggest that Apple has improved its logistics.
Kuo maintains his prediction that iPhone 16 sales will be slightly lower this quarter compared to last year’s iPhone 15 sales. However, he still expects Apple to sell 88–89 million units between now and the end of the year, which is slightly lower than the 90–91 million iPhone units sold last year. It’s also worth noting that Kuo estimated sales of only 80 million iPhone 15 units after those models launched last year, so Apple clearly blew past his expectations, and it could do so again.