Apple Prediction Expert Expects Decline In iPhone, iPad, and Mac Sales

KGI Securities analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo, has had a pretty good track record when it comes to the sales of Apple products, and he’s at it again.

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Kuo recently made his predictions for sales of the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch for upcoming fiscal results. Kuo estimates that between 70 and 75 million iPhones would be sold and 3.5 and 4 million Apple Watches would be sold during the first quarter of the 2016 fiscal year. This period of time encompasses the holiday shopping season in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe, and other regions.

Despite these huge sales, Kuo says that it’s unlikely that sales for the quarter will top the massive holiday sales from last year. This is despite the fact that Apple sales were up in the fourth quarter of 2015 from the fourth quarter of 2014.

In fact, a whopping 13 million iPhone 6s units were sold during the first few weeks of sales, up around 23.6 percent from last year. In total, KGI estimates that iPhone 6s and 6s Plus sales are likely to be at around 22 million during the September quarter.

Total sales in the December quarter of 2014 were at around 74.5 million, a number that was actually predicted by analysts at KGI. While the latest prediction is between 70 and 75 million, 75 million is, according to KGI unlikely. Even if that number is reached, however, it will represent almost no growth for the company. That’s not to say that 75 million isn’t a significant number of sales, but a lack of growth isn’t great for a company.

The research comes in the form of a note to MacRumors, with Kuo saying that a decline in sales is likely to continue into the next few quarters of 2016.

“However, as we do not expect overall demand for iPhone 6s to be significantly stronger than that for iPhone 6, we expect shipment momentum could gradually decline in 4Q15-1Q16 on a YoY basis. We expect iPhone may see its first YoY shipments decline in the first quarter of a year in 2016,” said Kuo in the statement.

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Of course, the iPhone wasn’t the only product included in Kuo’s predictions. He also made predictions about Apple Watch sales, and while sales of the Apple Watch are significantly less than the iPhone, they do represent a pretty strong first holiday season for the new product, which was launched back in April.

Not only are sales of the Apple Watch strong, but the numbers in-fact make the Apple Watch the most sold smartwatch. This is a pretty big deal considering the company only entered the smartwatch market this year, while companies like Sony and Samsung have been at it for a few years now.

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On top of Apple Watch and iPhone sales, Kuo also reported on his predictions for the iPad. Unfortunately for Apple, though not all that surprising, is the fact that it seems as though there will be a decline in iPad sales. In fact, sales won’t be down by an insignificant amount either, with a fall of 9.5 percent expected for the iPad.

This is largely due to the decrease in interest around tablets as users are buying larger and larger phones. Even Apple has joined the phablet bandwagon, with the release of the iPhone 6 Plus and iPhone 6s Plus.

This decrease remains true despite the recent launch of the iPad Pro. Of course, it’s important to mention that the iPad Pro is not expected to be a huge seller for Apple, and is largely targeted at artists and those that want a larger tablet for business and media. The average consumer won’t have any need for a tablet that big or expensive.

2015_new_macbook_goldLast but not least comes Mac sales, which are expected to go down 1.5 percent. This is a seemingly small amount, but is important to note. This decline comes at a time where computer sales in general are going down, and while the PC market is suffering a much larger decline in sales, sales of Apple’s computers are doing relatively well.

When all is said and done it seems as though the Apple Watch is the only product that will see an increase in sales, considering the fact that this is the first holiday season that the Apple Watch will be offered.

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